This week: the lesson Microsoft should have learnt by now as it turns 50; an update on my writing; The Spike-related links; and celebrating The Bends’ 30th birthday with Fake Plastic Trees.
immature
Microsoft are celebrating their 50th anniversary this week. Founded on 4th April 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen, it’s obvious their operating system and software has had a massive impact on the way computers have become an integral part of all our lives, whether we use their products or not.
I use Windows on all my home computers, use Office software (Word, Excel, and OneNote) for my writing, and use the same for my day job. I’ve owned various Microsoft hardware too over the years, from mice and keyboards, to a gaming steering wheel and pedals, to a Windows Phone.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m no fan-boy, but it’s often easier to use one tech “eco-system”, and Microsoft seemed the lesser evil to me, certainly compared to Apple, or later, Google.
Whilst Microsoft have undoubtedly made some good and influential products, there have been notable missteps.
I want to talk about the one mistake Microsoft keep repeating, and how they’re about to do it again.
Back in 2001, Microsoft launched their Tablet PC, nine years before the iPad was a thing. It didn’t take off, in large part because the tablets needed to be as big and heavy as a laptop in order to run Windows. Apple understood such devices needed to be smaller and easier to handle, so tailored the software to match for their iPad. Had Microsoft done the same, or waited for the hardware to become powerful enough to make the reality more practical, the tablet market could be a very different place. Instead, they’re still playing catch up with their Surface machines.
In 2012, Microsoft launched the latest version of their desktop operating system, Windows 8. The whole user interface was designed to make it easier to use with a touchscreen, with a large start menu that incorporated the “live tiles” from Windows Phone.
It’s unclear whether they believed all desktop computers would get a touchscreen, or if the majority of people would switch to tablets. However, many desktop users didn’t like having a start menu that took up the entire screen, and found the new interface awkward to use with a mouse and keyboard.
Where the live tiles worked well on a phone, where you could get information and updates from a glance at the home screen, this wasn’t a problem that needed solving on a desktop PC.
To make it worse, Windows would always boot up onto the start screen, not the usual desktop. People didn’t like that it was forced on them, and this was one of the most notable changes when Microsoft bit the bullet and released Windows 8.1 to backtrack from the least popular features.
In 2015, the HoloLens was wowing people before it became available in 2016. The HoloLens was an augmented reality headset; similar to virtual reality, but it enabled the wearer to see through the screen to the outside world with images overlayed, adjusting in real time to whatever you were looking at.
It appeared to be full of promise, but production ceased late last year. It was cumbersome, being a full Windows PC attached to glasses, and expensive. And it was only really marketed as a business tool, which seemed strange when an early demo showed someone filling their living room with a Minecraft world.
For each of these examples, there are multiple reasons why they failed. There’s one that links them all.
Microsoft tried to go too far, too soon, releasing a good idea before it was properly realised.
For the tablets, the hardware needed to run Windows was too large and clunky. Had they waited until the hardware could be made smaller and lighter, and lightened Windows to go with it, they could have had iPad-level success.
The Tablet PC was a good idea ahead of it’s time. By the time its time arrived, it was already behind the iPad.
For Windows 8, the live tile interface was a good idea for devices with touchscreens, but the vast majority of Windows PCs, many used for work at a desk, don’t have touchscreens. Forcing an interface that had been optimised for touch on users who had a mouse and keyboard was bound to backfire.
Had they made the start screen less intrusive, or only the default if it detected a touchscreen connected, the live tiles might still be around today.
With the HoloLens, they again put out something before it was practical for many people. The heft, both in price and weight, was prohibitive, and as it was such a new idea, it would take time for developers to make good use of it.
And now, they’re making the same mistake with Copilot, their AI assistant.
More and more, they are integrating Copilot into their programs. There is talk that the next version of Windows will have Copilot at its core, which very much sounds to me like they’re going to try to force it on people in the same way they tried with the live tiles of Windows 8.
And like having an interface designed for touchscreens when they weren’t widely used, this would be terrible timing.
AI, such as it is, is not ready for primetime. These current iterations are based on Large Language Models (LLMs) that give answers based on probability and patterns. If you’re writing a sentence, it might predict the next word most commonly used in similar sentence structures from its database, but that’s not necessarily what you want. It can be the complete opposite of what you want.
Plus, from all the information it’s scraped from the internet, it doesn’t know what’s factually correct and what isn’t. And at the moment, it will happily tell you that a half-century is 25 years.
We’re supposed to trust something that makes such simple mistakes to do tasks for us?
No thank you.
It’s possible there will be better software assistants in the future, but they won’t be based on LLMs.
If Microsoft try to force their attempt at AI on everyone now, it will discredit their future advances and Copilot will become a joke like Clippy.
progress_report
Discounting the week I had off from my day job in February, this has been the most productive week I’ve had in terms of words written since NaNOWriMo (RIP).
It was satisfying to bounce back after the head cold I had the previous week with 4,114 words making up five chapters that were fun and interesting to write.
The story is accelerating toward the end now and, if I get the expected bump in energy this coming week from my iron infusion, this draft should be done around the end of the month as targeted.
status.vol2
The Spike Volume 2 will contain three separate books from the perspective of seven characters.
Part 1 – draft 2 complete; further chapters to add.
Part 2 – draft 2 complete!
Part 3 – draft 2 written up to chapter 40; twenty-six chapters to go.
The intention is to complete draft 2 of part 3 by the end of April.
Part 1 is currently much shorter than the others, and I want them to be closer in length, so I will need to decide how to tighten parts 2 and 3 slightly, and add more to part 1 – I have some exciting ideas to expand it.
Then a readthrough of all parts will determine how much revision is required.
The ultimate aim is to have Volume 2 finished by the end of 2025 for publication early 2026.
connecting_links
The Spike is set in our world, incorporating real events; the links below are relevant to the themes and overarching storyline, and may or may not provide clues to the direction of the series.
I do not necessarily agree with or endorse any of the views within.
Government AI roll-outs threatened by outdated IT systems
How to engineer microbes to enable us to live on Mars
Authors call for UK government to hold Meta accountable for copyright infringement
UK needs to relax AI laws or risk transatlantic ties, thinktank warns
Average person will be 40% poorer if world warms by 4C, new research shows
An AI companion chatbot is inciting self-harm, sexual violence and terror attacks
weekly_inspiration
Every week I share something that’s inspired my creativity.
This week, I’ve belatedly celebrated the 30th birthday of The Bends by Radiohead, which was released in the UK on 13th March 1995.
My friends bought me the CD for Christmas 1996, in the knowledge I would be getting my first CD player as a gift from my parents. I listened to The Bends on repeat, and not just because it was one of the only CDs I owned. It was the first time I’d heard Radiohead and I didn’t know music could be like this. It opened my eyes to a whole new world.
Fake Plastic Trees was the fourth track and the third single from The Bends, and for me, the Glastonbury 2003 performance is its peak. Thom Yorke carries the song throughout, but when the rest of the band comes in during the second half, Jonny Greenwood grabs it by the scruff of the neck like only he can.
What’s inspired you this week? Please share in the comments.
See you next week.
Arrowmaker Books 